Western Digital · WDC

Free cash flow — 10-year history ($B)

The read — lights & verdict

• !
  Warning:

  Overvalued

  Fair value ~$33 vs $520 — trading 94% above what the math supports.
• !
  Warning:

  Price assumes a big acceleration

  You'd need more than 40%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price, which is past anything this model will solve for; it has done 19.1%/yr lately.
• ✓
  Good:

  Revenue still growing

  Up 50.7% last year — demand isn't the problem.
• ✓
  Good:

  Cash flow compounding

  Free cash flow up ~19.1%/yr — the engine is growing.
• –
  Caution:

  Manageable net debt

  Net debt of $3B — about 3.5× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.

How this was built. Every figure is computed from Western Digital Corporation's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Fair value is based on typical free cash flow over the last five years ($0.8B), not the latest year ($1.3B), which sat 71% above the company's own norm. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Western Digital that is about $3B, or $7 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $519.80 taken 2026-07-24 (founder-supplied CSV, July 2026) — it is not live and does not move during the day.