Expensive and softening.

Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.

Current price
$52.15
Market cap ≈ $19B
Intrinsic value
$42
range $26 – $66
Margin of safety
-20%
above fair value
2 FY16 2 FY17 2 FY18 1 FY19 3 FY20 3 FY21 1 FY22 -0 FY23 1 FY24 1 FY25

What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.

  • Warning:
    Overvalued
    Fair value ~$42 vs $52 — trading 20% above what the math supports.
  • Good:
    Price is in line with its record
    Priced for ~7%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (13.7%/yr) — from a depressed FY22 base.
  • Good:
    Revenue still growing
    Up 2.1% last year — demand isn't the problem.
  • Good:
    Cash flow compounding
    Free cash flow up ~13.7%/yr — the engine is growing.
  • Warning:
    Heavy debt load
    Net debt of $8B — roughly 6× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.

Where this number comes from →

How this was built. Every figure is computed from Tyson Foods, Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Tyson Foods that is about $8B, or $21 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $52.15 taken 2026-09-08 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-08) — it is not live and does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →