Want to find your lens? Five questions, no jargon — they tell you which of four reads fits how you already think.
Expensive and softening.
Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 10-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- Warning:OvervaluedFair value ~$64 vs $125 — trading 49% above what the math supports.
- Good:Price is in line with its recordPriced for ~10%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (17.3%/yr).
- Good:Revenue still growingUp 3.7% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Good:Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~17.3%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Warning:Heavy debt loadNet debt of $7B — roughly 10× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from The J. M. Smucker Company's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Fair value is based on typical free cash flow over the last five years ($0.7B), not the latest year ($1.2B), which sat 61% above the company's own norm. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for J.M. Smucker that is about $7B, or $65 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY26 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $125.09 taken 2026-09-08 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-08) — it is not live and does not move during the day.
TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →