A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.

A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.

Current price
$146.44
Market cap ≈ $355B
Intrinsic value
$109
range $79 – $156
Margin of safety
-26%
above fair value
9 FY17 11 FY18 12 FY19 14 FY20 16 FY21 14 FY22 14 FY23 17 FY24 14 FY25 15 FY26

What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.

  • Warning:
    Overvalued
    Fair value ~$109 vs $146 — trading 26% above what the math supports.
  • Warning:
    Price assumes a big acceleration
    You'd need ~9%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done 3.2%/yr lately.
  • Good:
    Revenue still growing
    Up 3.3% last year — demand isn't the problem.
  • Good:
    Cash flow compounding
    Free cash flow up ~3.2%/yr — the engine is growing.
  • Caution:
    Manageable net debt
    Net debt of $24B — about 1.6× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.

Where this number comes from →

How this was built. Every figure is computed from The Procter & Gamble Company's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. Fundamentals are from the FY26 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $146.44 taken 2026-09-04 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-08-28) — it is not live and does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →