A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.

A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.

Current price
$168.56
Market cap ≈ $91B
Intrinsic value
$121
range $87 – $174
Margin of safety
-28%
above fair value
5 FY16 5 FY17 5 FY18 5 FY19 7 FY20 6 FY21 4 FY22 5 FY23 1 FY24 1 FY25

What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.

  • Warning:
    Overvalued
    Fair value ~$121 vs $169 — trading 28% above what the math supports.
  • Warning:
    Price assumes a big acceleration
    You'd need ~9%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done -28.6%/yr lately.
  • Good:
    Revenue still growing
    Up 1.5% last year — demand isn't the problem.
  • Caution:
    Cash flow flat-to-down
    Free cash flow ~-28.6%/yr — big, but not compounding. The crux for a value buyer.
  • Caution:
    Manageable net debt
    Net debt of $7B — about 1.9× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.

Where this number comes from →

How this was built. Every figure is computed from 3M Company's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Fair value is based on typical free cash flow over the last five years ($3.8B), not the latest year ($1.4B), which sat 64% below the company's own norm. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $168.56 taken 2026-09-04 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-08-28) — it is not live and does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →