A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.

A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.

Current price
$94.17
Market cap ≈ $121B
Intrinsic value
$66
range $45 – $97
Margin of safety
-30%
above fair value
6 FY17 4 FY18 6 FY19 6 FY20 5 FY21 6 FY22 5 FY23 5 FY24 5 FY25 5 FY26

What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.

  • Warning:
    Overvalued
    Fair value ~$66 vs $94 — trading 30% above what the math supports.
  • Caution:
    Price assumes a modest step-up
    Priced for ~9%/yr vs a 5.8%/yr record — a stretch, not heroic.
  • Good:
    Revenue still growing
    Up 8.4% last year — demand isn't the problem.
  • Good:
    Cash flow compounding
    Free cash flow up ~5.8%/yr — the engine is growing.
  • Caution:
    Manageable net debt
    Net debt of $19B — about 3.5× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.

Where this number comes from →

How this was built. Every figure is computed from Medtronic plc's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Medtronic that is about $19B, or $15 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY26 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $94.17 taken 2026-09-04 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-08-28) — it is not live and does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →