Want to find your lens? Five questions, no jargon — they tell you which of four reads fits how you already think.
Expensive and softening.
Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 10-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- Warning:OvervaluedFair value ~$124 vs $337 — trading 63% above what the math supports.
- Warning:Price assumes a big accelerationYou'd need ~15%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done 8.7%/yr lately.
- Good:Revenue still growingUp 4.3% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Good:Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~8.7%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Warning:Heavy debt loadNet debt of $16B — roughly 6× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from Marriott International, Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Marriott that is about $16B, or $58 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $336.51 taken 2026-09-04 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-08-28) — it is not live and does not move during the day.
TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →