Expensive and softening.

Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.

Current price
$387.20
Market cap ≈ $14B
Intrinsic value
$306
range $218 – $441
Margin of safety
-21%
above fair value
0 FY16 0 FY17 0 FY18 0 FY19 1 FY20 0 FY21 0 FY22 0 FY23 1 FY24 1 FY25

What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.

  • Warning:
    Overvalued
    Fair value ~$306 vs $387 — trading 21% above what the math supports.
  • Good:
    Price is in line with its record
    Priced for ~8%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (47.0%/yr) — from a depressed FY22 base.
  • Warning:
    Revenue shrinking
    Down 2.7% last year — cheap may mean broken.
  • Good:
    Cash flow compounding
    Free cash flow up ~47.0%/yr — the engine is growing.
  • Caution:
    Manageable net debt
    Net debt of $1B — about 2.1× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.

Where this number comes from →

How this was built. Every figure is computed from Lennox International Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Lennox that is about $1B, or $38 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $387.20 taken 2026-09-08 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-08) — it is not live and does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →