Cheap — but check the trap first.

It looks undervalued, but something is deteriorating. Cheap for a reason, or a real bargain?

Current price
$58.14
Market cap ≈ $38B
Intrinsic value
$79
range $53 – $118
Margin of safety
+36%
below fair value
1 FY17 1 FY18 1 FY19 2 FY20 4 FY21 4 FY22 1 FY23 3 FY24 2 FY25 3 FY26

What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.

  • Good:
    Undervalued
    Fair value ~$79 vs $58 — a margin of safety of 36%.
  • Good:
    Price is in line with its record
    Priced for ~2%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (34.5%/yr) — from a depressed FY23 base.
  • Good:
    Revenue still growing
    Up 0.4% last year — demand isn't the problem.
  • Good:
    Cash flow compounding
    Free cash flow up ~34.5%/yr — the engine is growing.
  • Warning:
    Heavy debt load
    Net debt of $14B — roughly 4× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture. It also has $7B of operating-lease commitments — about 2.1× annual free cash flow — which this figure does not count as debt.

Where this number comes from →

How this was built. Every figure is computed from The Kroger Co.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Kroger that is about $14B, or $22 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY26 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $58.14 taken 2026-09-08 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-11) — it is not live and does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →