Coca-Cola · KO

Free cash flow — 10-year history ($B)

The read — lights & verdict

• !
  Warning:

  Overvalued

  Fair value ~$35 vs $82 — trading 58% above what the math supports.
• !
  Warning:

  Price assumes a big acceleration

  You'd need ~15%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done -17.8%/yr lately.
• ✓
  Good:

  Revenue still growing

  Up 1.9% last year — demand isn't the problem.
• –
  Caution:

  Cash flow flat-to-down

  Free cash flow ~-17.8%/yr — big, but not compounding. The crux for a value buyer.
• –
  Caution:

  Manageable net debt

  Net debt of $32B — about 3.3× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.

How this was built. Every figure is computed from The Coca-Cola Company's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Fair value is based on typical free cash flow over the last five years ($9.5B), not the latest year ($5.3B), which sat 44% below the company's own norm. Both years carried one-off payments the 10-K sets out: a $6.0B deposit with the IRS in 2024 to stop interest accruing while it appeals a tax ruling, and the contingent consideration for fairlife settled in 2025. Neither is how much cash the drinks business throws off in a year. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Coca-Cola that is about $32B, or $7 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $82.25 taken 2026-07-24 (founder-supplied CSV, July 2026) — it is not live and does not move during the day.