Want to find your lens? Five questions, no jargon — they tell you which of four reads fits how you already think.
Fairly priced — no edge either way.
Close to fair value. Not a bargain, not a rip-off. Come back if the price moves.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 10-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- Caution:Roughly fairFair value ~$418 sits close to the $402 price — no real margin of safety either way.
- Good:Price is in line with its recordPriced for ~5%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (23.1%/yr).
- Good:Revenue still growingUp 7.1% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Good:Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~23.1%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Warning:Heavy debt loadNet debt of $46B — roughly 6× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for HCA Healthcare that is about $46B, or $193 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $402.02 taken 2026-09-08 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-08) — it is not live and does not move during the day.
TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →