Genuine Parts · GPC

Free cash flow — 10-year history ($B)

The read — lights & verdict

• !
  Warning:

  Overvalued

  Fair value ~$95 vs $134 — trading 29% above what the math supports.
• !
  Warning:

  Price assumes a big acceleration

  You'd need ~9%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done -28.0%/yr lately.
• ✓
  Good:

  Revenue still growing

  Up 3.5% last year — demand isn't the problem.
• –
  Caution:

  Cash flow flat-to-down

  Free cash flow ~-28.0%/yr — big, but not compounding. The crux for a value buyer.
• !
  Warning:

  Heavy debt load

  Net debt of $4B — roughly 5× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture. It also has $2B of operating-lease commitments — about 2.3× annual free cash flow — which this figure does not count as debt.

Where this number comes from →

How this was built. Every figure is computed from Genuine Parts Company's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Fair value is based on typical free cash flow over the last five years ($0.9B), not the latest year ($0.4B), which sat 54% below the company's own norm. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Genuine Parts that is about $4B, or $31 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $134.06 taken 2026-09-09 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-09) — it is not live and does not move during the day.