A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.

A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.

Current price
$923.89
Market cap ≈ $23B
Intrinsic value
$479
range $327 – $712
Margin of safety
-48%
above fair value
0 FY16 0 FY17 0 FY18 0 FY19 0 FY20 0 FY21 1 FY22 0 FY23 1 FY24 1 FY25

What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.

  • Warning:
    Overvalued
    Fair value ~$479 vs $924 — trading 48% above what the math supports.
  • Good:
    Price is in line with its record
    Priced for ~12%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (15.2%/yr).
  • Good:
    Revenue still growing
    Up 15.9% last year — demand isn't the problem.
  • Good:
    Cash flow compounding
    Free cash flow up ~15.2%/yr — the engine is growing.
  • Caution:
    Manageable net debt
    Net debt of $3B — about 3.7× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.

Where this number comes from →

How this was built. Every figure is computed from Fair Isaac Corporation's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Fair Isaac that is about $3B, or $117 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $923.89 taken 2026-09-08 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-08) — it is not live and does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →