Expensive and softening.

Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.

Current price
$62.60
Market cap ≈ $90B
Intrinsic value
$11
range $7 – $17
Margin of safety
-83%
above fair value
1 FY16 3 FY17 2 FY18 -1 FY19 1 FY20 6 FY21 2 FY22 0 FY23 2 FY24 1 FY25

What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.

  • Warning:
    Overvalued
    Fair value ~$11 vs $63 — trading 83% above what the math supports.
  • Warning:
    Price assumes a big acceleration
    You'd need ~25%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done -12.6%/yr lately.
  • Good:
    Revenue still growing
    Up 0.1% last year — demand isn't the problem.
  • Caution:
    Cash flow flat-to-down
    Free cash flow ~-12.6%/yr — big, but not compounding. The crux for a value buyer.
  • Warning:
    Heavy debt load
    Net debt of $6B — roughly 5× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.

How this was built. Every figure is computed from Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. We subtract net debt from the value of the business — for Freeport-McMoRan that is about $6B, or $4 per share. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $62.60 taken 2026-07-24 (founder-supplied CSV, July 2026) — it is not live and does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →