Want to find your lens? Five questions, no jargon — they tell you which of four reads fits how you already think.
A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.
A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 10-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- WarningOvervaluedFair value ~$433 vs $989 — trading 56% above what the math supports.
- CautionPrice assumes a modest step-upPriced for ~17%/yr vs a 11.6%/yr record — a stretch, not heroic.
- GoodRevenue still growingUp 10.1% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- GoodCash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~11.6%/yr — the engine is growing.
- GoodFortress balance sheetNet cash positive (+$14B) — little solvency risk.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from Costco Wholesale Corporation's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. Fundamentals are from the FY26 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $989.11 taken 2026-10-17 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-10-17) — it is not live and does not move during the day.
TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →