Want to find your lens? Five questions, no jargon — they tell you which of four reads fits how you already think.
Cheap and healthy — worth a proper look.
The math shows a margin of safety, and nothing is obviously deteriorating.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 10-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- Good:UndervaluedFair value ~$204 vs $135 — a margin of safety of 51%.
- Warning:Price assumes a big accelerationYou'd need ~-0%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done -19.1%/yr lately.
- Good:Revenue still growingUp 19.3% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Caution:Cash flow flat-to-downFree cash flow ~-19.1%/yr — big, but not compounding. The crux for a value buyer.
- Caution:Manageable net debtNet debt of $1B — about 0.7× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $134.58 taken 2026-09-08 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-11) — it is not live and does not move during the day.
TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →