This price needs ~7%/yr of free-cash-flow growth.

Every fair-value number — ours included — starts from a guess about the future. This one runs the other direction: it takes today's price as fixed and works out what free-cash-flow growth rate would have to be true for that price to make sense. We're not forecasting it. We're reading it off the price that's already there.

Current price
$551.67
as of 2026-09-08
Priced for
~7%/yr
free-cash-flow growth
Delivered, last 3 years
-3.0%/yr
free-cash-flow growth, filed

That's well above the -3.0%/yr the company delivered over the last three years — the gap is what the price is asking for, and the record hasn't produced it yet.

See the full read on Ulta Beauty →

How this is computed. Two-stage DCF, solved backwards: 9% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth, holding fair value equal to today's price and solving for the stage-1 free-cash-flow growth rate that makes the arithmetic balance. Price of $551.67 taken 2026-09-08 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-09-08) — not live, does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →