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This price needs ~16%/yr of free-cash-flow growth.
Every fair-value number — ours included — starts from a guess about the future. This one runs the other direction: it takes today's price as fixed and works out what free-cash-flow growth rate would have to be true for that price to make sense. We're not forecasting it. We're reading it off the price that's already there.
Implied vs. delivered
That's well above the -17.8%/yr the company delivered over the last three years — the gap is what the price is asking for, and the record hasn't produced it yet.
How this is computed. Two-stage DCF, solved backwards: 9% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth, holding fair value equal to today's price and solving for the stage-1 free-cash-flow growth rate that makes the arithmetic balance. Fair value is based on typical free cash flow over the last five years ($9.5B), not the latest year ($5.3B), which sat 44% below the company's own norm. Both years carried one-off payments the 10-K sets out: a $6.0B deposit with the IRS in 2024 to stop interest accruing while it appeals a tax ruling, and the contingent consideration for fairlife settled in 2025. Neither is how much cash the drinks business throws off in a year. Price of $88.07 taken 2026-09-04 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-08-28) — not live, does not move during the day.
TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →