This price needs ~19%/yr of free-cash-flow growth.

Every fair-value number — ours included — starts from a guess about the future. This one runs the other direction: it takes today's price as fixed and works out what free-cash-flow growth rate would have to be true for that price to make sense. We're not forecasting it. We're reading it off the price that's already there.

Current price
$560.75
as of 2026-09-04
Priced for
~19%/yr
free-cash-flow growth
Delivered, last 3 years
31.6%/yr
free-cash-flow growth, filed

The company has already grown free cash flow faster than this — 31.6%/yr over the last three years against the ~19%/yr priced in. The price isn't asking for more than the company has already delivered.

See the full read on Cummins →

How this is computed. Two-stage DCF, solved backwards: 9% discount rate, 2.5% terminal growth, holding fair value equal to today's price and solving for the stage-1 free-cash-flow growth rate that makes the arithmetic balance. Fair value is based on typical free cash flow over the last five years ($1.5B), not the latest year ($2.4B), which sat 57% above the company's own norm. Price of $560.75 taken 2026-09-04 (Google Finance, manual entry, 2026-08-28) — not live, does not move during the day.

TickerMath is an educational tool, not investment advice — it computes one model from SEC filings and can be wrong. How we compute this →