Expensive and softening.
Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- OvervaluedFair value ~$77 vs $239 — trading 68% above what the math supports.
- Price is in line with its recordPriced for ~16%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (17.7%/yr).
- Revenue still growingUp 14.2% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~17.7%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Heavy debt loadNet debt of $23B — roughly 8× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from Waste Management, Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $238.75 taken 2026-07-24 (founder-supplied CSV, July 2026) — it is not live and does not move during the day.