Expensive and softening.
Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- OvervaluedFair value ~$30 vs $103 — trading 71% above what the math supports.
- Price assumes a big accelerationYou'd need ~19%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done -1.5%/yr lately.
- Revenue still growingUp 2.8% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow flat-to-downFree cash flow ~-1.5%/yr — big, but not compounding. The crux for a value buyer.
- Heavy debt loadNet debt of $13B — roughly 5× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture. It also has $11B of operating-lease commitments — about 4.3× annual free cash flow — which this figure does not count as debt.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from Starbucks Corporation's SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $103.25 taken 2026-07-24 (founder-supplied CSV, July 2026) — it is not live and does not move during the day.