We don't have an honest read on this one.
Our model values a company on the cash it can hand its owners after paying for its own growth. That is the wrong question to ask about Progressive, so we are not going to answer it.
Why not
- The model doesn't fit this businessAn insurer: premiums arrive before claims are paid, so cash on hand includes money owed to policyholders. Our model would read that float as surplus, which it is not.
Why show the page at all. Because the alternative is a number we don't believe. Every other company on TickerMath gets a fair value computed from its SEC filings; this one gets a plain explanation instead, which is the same promise kept a different way. If we ever build a lens that suits Progressive's economics — book value and return on equity for a bank, funds from operations for a property trust — it will appear here.