A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.
A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.
Current price
$148.10
Market cap ≈ $345B
Intrinsic value
$104
range $75 – $149
Margin of safety
-30%
above fair value
Price today
$148
Fair value
$104
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- OvervaluedFair value ~$104 vs $148 — trading 30% above what the math supports.
- Price assumes a big accelerationYou'd need ~9%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done 1.2%/yr lately.
- Revenue still growingUp 3.3% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~1.2%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Manageable net debtNet debt of $25B — about 1.8× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.
How this was built. Real figures from The Procter & Gamble Company's public annual filings and market data. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal — the numbers are computed, never AI-guessed. Prices as of the last data refresh.