Fairly priced — no edge either way.
Close to fair value. Not a bargain, not a rip-off. Come back if the price moves.
Current price
$24.84
Market cap ≈ $142B
Intrinsic value
$21
range $14 – $33
Margin of safety
-14%
above fair value
Price today
$25
Fair value
$21
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- Roughly fairFair value ~$21 sits close to the $25 price — no real margin of safety either way.
- Price assumes a big accelerationYou'd need ~6%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done -29.6%/yr lately.
- Revenue shrinkingDown 1.7% last year — cheap may mean broken.
- Cash flow flat-to-downFree cash flow ~-29.6%/yr — big, but not compounding. The crux for a value buyer.
- Heavy debt loadNet debt of $52B — roughly 6× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.
How this was built. Real figures from Pfizer Inc.'s public annual filings and market data. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal — the numbers are computed, never AI-guessed. Prices as of the last data refresh.