A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.
A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.
Current price
$213.55
Market cap ≈ $5.2T
Intrinsic value
$78
range $58 – $107
Margin of safety
-64%
above fair value
Price today
$214
Fair value
$78
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- OvervaluedFair value ~$78 vs $214 — trading 64% above what the math supports.
- Price is in line with its recordPriced for ~19%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (52.9%/yr).
- Revenue still growingUp 65.5% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~52.9%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Fortress balance sheetNet cash positive (+$40B) — little solvency risk.
How this was built. Real figures from NVIDIA Corporation's public annual filings and market data. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal — the numbers are computed, never AI-guessed. Prices as of the last data refresh.