A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.
A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.
Current price
$625.60
Market cap ≈ $1.6T
Intrinsic value
$343
range $255 – $478
Margin of safety
-45%
above fair value
Price today
$626
Fair value
$343
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- OvervaluedFair value ~$343 vs $626 — trading 45% above what the math supports.
- Price is in line with its recordPriced for ~13%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (33.7%/yr).
- Revenue still growingUp 22.2% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~33.7%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Manageable net debtNet debt of $6B — about 0.1× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.
How this was built. Real figures from Meta Platforms, Inc.'s public annual filings and market data. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal — the numbers are computed, never AI-guessed. Prices as of the last data refresh.