Expensive and softening.
Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- OvervaluedFair value ~$124 vs $374 — trading 67% above what the math supports.
- Price assumes a big accelerationYou'd need ~16%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done 8.7%/yr lately.
- Revenue still growingUp 4.3% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~8.7%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Heavy debt loadNet debt of $16B — roughly 6× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from Marriott International, Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. Price of $374.43 taken 2026-07-24 (founder-supplied CSV, July 2026) — it is not live and does not move during the day.