Expensive and softening.
Trading above fair value while the fundamentals weaken — little to like right now.
Current price
$82.37
Market cap ≈ $354B
Intrinsic value
$16
range $10 – $25
Margin of safety
-80%
above fair value
Price today
$82
Fair value
$16
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- OvervaluedFair value ~$16 vs $82 — trading 80% above what the math supports.
- Price assumes a big accelerationYou'd need ~23%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done -17.8%/yr lately.
- Revenue still growingUp 1.9% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow flat-to-downFree cash flow ~-17.8%/yr — big, but not compounding. The crux for a value buyer.
- Heavy debt loadNet debt of $31B — roughly 6× annual free cash flow. This changes the risk picture.
How this was built. Real figures from The Coca-Cola Company's public annual filings and market data. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal — the numbers are computed, never AI-guessed. Prices as of the last data refresh.