A wonderful business — priced for growth it hasn't delivered.
A great company, but no margin of safety at this price. Worth watching, not worth buying here.
Current price
$346.49
Market cap ≈ $4.2T
Intrinsic value
$117
range $88 – $162
Margin of safety
-66%
above fair value
Price today
$346
Fair value
$117
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- OvervaluedFair value ~$117 vs $346 — trading 66% above what the math supports.
- Price assumes a big accelerationYou'd need ~20%/yr free-cash-flow growth to justify today's price; it has done 6.9%/yr lately.
- Revenue still growingUp 15.1% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~6.9%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Fortress balance sheetNet cash positive (+$31B) — little solvency risk.
How this was built. Real figures from Alphabet Inc.'s public annual filings and market data. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal — the numbers are computed, never AI-guessed. Prices as of the last data refresh.