Cheap and healthy — worth a proper look.
The math shows a margin of safety, and nothing is obviously deteriorating.
Price against fair value
Free cash flow — 5-year history ($B)
What the math is really telling you. Watch whether cash flow is compounding — that, more than any single year, is what a value read hangs on.
The read — lights & verdict
- UndervaluedFair value ~$216 vs $177 — a margin of safety of 22%.
- Price is in line with its recordPriced for ~2%/yr, roughly what it has delivered (13.7%/yr).
- Revenue still growingUp 13.4% last year — demand isn't the problem.
- Cash flow compoundingFree cash flow up ~13.7%/yr — the engine is growing.
- Manageable net debtNet debt of $2B — about 0.2× annual free cash flow. Normal for a mature company.
How this was built. Every figure is computed from Booking Holdings Inc.'s SEC filings — no estimates, no AI. Two-stage DCF: 9% discount rate, 5% free-cash-flow growth for 10 years, 2.5% terminal. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Net cash is cash and marketable securities less borrowings, commercial paper and finance leases; operating leases are disclosed but never counted as debt. Fundamentals are from the FY25 annual report and change only when a new one is filed. There was a stock split after the last annual report, so the share count is the diluted figure filed in the 10-Q to 2026-03-31 rather than the annual average, which is on a basis that no longer exists. Price of $177.46 taken 2026-07-24 (founder-supplied CSV, July 2026) — it is not live and does not move during the day.